RESULTS: English Premier League: 12/14-12/16

Words cannot express how lucky I am after this week of matches. The model was a travesty to put it at best, but we got lucky. I noticed (after my locks) that my model was not properly accounting for the individual match, just essentially choosing a result based on the difference between average goals scored.

-1.00: Dec. 14th 2024 - Newcastle United vs. Leicester City - Draw or Leicester City (-136) : This was a real tragedy. Newcastle came through with a 4-0 sweep to break me down just before the weekend started. Needless to say after noticing the issues with the model and this first pick, I was nervous.

+0.69: Dec. 15th 2024 - Southampton FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur - Tottenham Hotspur (-144) : Hard to say this one was lucky. I think everyone should’ve taken this pick regardless of analytics. Southampton are dogwater.

+2.95: Dec. 16th 2024 - AFC Bournemouth vs. West Ham United - Draw (+295) : Our model predicted a draw, which was a terrible prediction. That being said, we got incredibly lucky. I adjusted my model to be a real model and it did not show this as a very likely outcome.

The next post will be with a new model, hopefully with a few more tweaks before the post actually comes out. I’ve run a Random Forest model to predict the results of the game. Each game has the probability that our model shows for win, loss, and draw. We can compare this to our bookie odds to find opportunities that are ideal for us.

Make your own picks, and check out the deposit bonuses available on MyBookie at the link below!

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