English Premier League: 12/21-12/22
Aston Villa vs. Manchester City
Pick: Draw (+270)
Match Date: December 21, 2024, 12:30 PM (GMT)
Model Insight: The model assigns a 38.2% to 40.4% chance of a draw, significantly higher than the bookmaker's 28.5% probability. Aston Villa recently suffered a 2-1 defeat to Nottingham Forest, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. Manchester City has been struggling with only one win in their last 11 matches across all competitions, including a recent 2-1 loss to Manchester United. City's current form issues suggest that Villa could capitalize, making a draw a plausible outcome. Injury-wise, Manchester City is dealing with key absences that could impact their performance.
Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest
Pick: Brentford Moneyline (+118)
Match Date: December 21, 2024, 3:00 PM (GMT)
Model Insight: Brentford’s chance of winning, per the model, is 55%-56%, compared to the bookmaker's implied probability of 47%. Brentford is coming off a 4-1 victory against Leicester City, showcasing their attacking prowess. Nottingham Forest, despite a recent 2-1 win over Aston Villa, has been inconsistent, particularly in away games. Brentford's strong home form and recent performances make this pick appealing. Both teams have relatively healthy squads, with no major injury concerns reported.
Liverpool vs. Tottenham
Pick: Liverpool Moneyline (ML)
Match Date: December 22, 2024, 4:30 PM (GMT)
Model Insight: The model strongly supports a Liverpool victory, assigning a 67.6% to 81.6% chance, far exceeding the bookmaker’s implied probability of 55.2%. Liverpool's recent 2-2 draw with Fulham indicates some defensive lapses but maintains their unbeaten streak. Tottenham, meanwhile, suffered a 1-0 loss to AFC Bournemouth, reflecting potential vulnerabilities. Liverpool's overall consistency and attacking depth give them the edge in this fixture. Injury updates indicate that Liverpool may have key players returning to fitness, bolstering their lineup.
Leicester City vs. Wolverhampton
Pick: Draw (+238)
Match Date: December 22, 2024, 2:00 PM (GMT)
Model Insight: The model assigns a 44.2% to 47.2% chance of a draw, significantly higher than the bookmaker's implied probability of 29.4%. Leicester recently secured a 3-1 win over West Ham United, indicating an upturn in form. Wolverhampton, however, faced a 2-1 defeat to West Ham in an earlier fixture, highlighting defensive concerns. Given the fluctuating performances of both teams, a draw appears to be a reasonable outcome. Both squads have minor injury concerns, but no new major absences are expected to influence the match significantly.
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester United
Pick: AFC Bournemouth (+280)
Match Date: December 22, 2024, 5:30 PM (GMT)
Model Insight: The model assigns a 39% to 42% chance for a Bournemouth victory, compared to the bookmaker's implied probability of 27%. Bournemouth's recent 1-0 victory over Tottenham demonstrates their capability to challenge stronger teams. Manchester United, despite a recent 2-1 win against Manchester City, has shown inconsistency in away matches this season. Bournemouth's home advantage and recent form suggest they could secure an upset. Injury reports indicate that Manchester United may be missing key players, which could impact their performance.
Final Thoughts
This week’s model is a real, working, decent, model. I can’t wait to go 0-6 while the model that was not fit for human consumption performed at 50% success last weekend. Next week we have a slightly better model, but I spent most of my week scrounging for new data that kept making my model less accurate.
I’m having issues incorrectly predicting draws, but I’m not sure how to solve it. I also say that as half of my picks are draws. The difference between the odds were just too high to pass up. It makes sense the model predicts lots of draws, as soccer games are close and won in a split second, but I’m not currently sure how to solve it, other than picking winners. I could combine loss and draw and predict that way, but don’t think it would provide different proportions than just adding loss and draw percents.
Each of these picks highlights scenarios where the model identifies mispriced odds compared to bookmaker probabilities. While no model guarantees results, combining robust analytics with strategic betting provides a smarter way to approach soccer wagering.
What are your thoughts on these picks? Do you agree with the model's predictions, or do you foresee different outcomes? Let us know!
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