English Premier League: 12/26-12/27
This weeks matchups provide some interesting opportunities. We’ve eliminated draws from our predictions, as I can’t find a way to predict it well. We will focus on the best available mismatches in probabilities, and only begin look at draw as an option if over 20% differential. With the shakeups in the premier league, our model is showing a lot of love to the underdogs this week. Perhaps the bookies are relying on bounceback weeks from powerhouse clubs that have been struggling, or the fans are pumping the odds with desperation bets. Surely their team couldn’t lose again, right?
Manchester City vs. Everton
Pick: Everton Moneyline (ML) at +670
Match Date: December 26, 2024, 12:30 PM (GMT)
When giants like Manchester City stumble, the entire league feels the tremor. While City sits near the top of the table, injuries have left their squad looking more vulnerable than usual. Key goalkeeper Ederson is likely to miss this clash, and their defensive line hasn’t been its unbreakable self lately. Enter Everton—a side with renewed grit under Sean Dyche, who thrives in these David vs. Goliath scenarios.
The model gives Everton a 24.4% chance to win, almost double the implied probability of 12.99%. While the Toffees will need to be compact defensively, don’t rule out a shock counterattacking goal or a set-piece masterclass to nick this one.
Tottenham Hotspur vs. Nottingham Forest
Pick: Tottenham Moneyline (ML) at +176
Match Date: December 26, 2024, 3:00 PM (GMT)
Tottenham has been riding a wave of inconsistency, but their attack is as dangerous as ever. Despite the absence of Cristian Romero, Spurs have enough firepower in Son Heung-min and James Maddison to challenge Nottingham Forest. The visitors have improved this season, but Forest’s struggles on the road remain a thorn in their side.
Our model sees Tottenham with a 47.7% chance to win, comfortably ahead of the implied probability of 36.23%. If Maddison pulls the strings in midfield and Richarlison finds his shooting boots, Spurs should have enough to claim three crucial points.
Chelsea vs. Fulham
Pick: Fulham Moneyline (ML) at +470
Match Date: December 26, 2024, 3:00 PM (GMT)
Stamford Bridge hasn’t been the fortress Chelsea once prided itself on, and Fulham knows it. The Blues are missing Romeo Lavia, which leaves a gap in their ability to control the midfield. Fulham, on the other hand, comes into this game with a clean bill of health and a dogged determination to disrupt their West London rivals.
The model’s 31.2% win probability for Fulham dwarfs the implied 17.54%. Aleksandar Mitrović’s physical presence up front and the creative spark of Andreas Pereira could be the recipe for another memorable upset.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Brentford
Pick: Brentford Moneyline (ML) at +330
Match Date: December 27, 2024, 7:30 PM (GMT)
Brighton dazzles fans with their free-flowing football, but the Seagulls are missing defensive anchor Adam Webster, a critical blow against Brentford's direct style of play. Thomas Frank’s side thrives in moments like these, where they can exploit defensive lapses with Ivan Toney leading the charge.
Our model sees Brentford with a 41.5% chance to win, far exceeding the implied probability of 23.26%. Brentford’s ability to frustrate opponents and strike on the counter could prove decisive in a matchup that promises goals.
Final Thoughts
The mismatch between model predictions and implied probabilities presents exciting opportunities this week. From Fulham's potential upset to Brentford’s road chances, there’s value to explore in this set of matches.
Be sure to check out my Serie A post as well! This is our first week in the Italian league and I’m excited at the opportunites that are waiting there. I will also be posting a model update soon, as there are some exciting updates to the model that not only improve the model, but also improve the ease at which I can update the data and apply it to the next set of matches.
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