Serie A Picks: 12/28-12/30
As Serie A resumes after Christmas, the league offers its usual blend of high drama, tactical intrigue, and surprises. Here are our top picks for the upcoming fixtures, with deeper insights into why the underdogs might just pull off an upset. Our first entry into Serie A should be exciting. Our model is still showing that the bookies have great faith in the favorites. Let’s hope that faith is misguided.
Cagliari vs. Inter Milan
Pick: Cagliari Moneyline (ML) at +510
Match Date: December 28, 2024, 5:00 PM (GMT)
Inter Milan comes into this match brimming with confidence, bolstered by Hakan Çalhanoğlu’s likely return. But don’t sleep on Cagliari. The Sardinians have turned their home ground into a fortress this season, with a defensive setup that can frustrate even the most potent of attacks.
The model gives Cagliari a 30.4% chance of victory, well above the implied 16.39%. Inter might dominate possession, but Cagliari’s knack for soaking up pressure and striking on the break could deliver a shocking result.
Lecce vs. Como
Pick: Lecce Moneyline (ML) at +340
Match Date: December 30, 2024, 5:30 PM (GMT)
Lecce has been a tough nut to crack at home, and despite missing Lameck Banda, their counterattacking style remains potent. Como, meanwhile, is struggling to find form on the road.
The model’s 31.3% win probability for Lecce outpaces the implied 22.73%. If Lecce can remain disciplined defensively, they have the tools to take advantage of a Como side that has struggled against compact setups.
Hellas Verona vs. Bologna
Pick: Hellas Verona Moneyline (ML) at +520
Match Date: December 30, 2024, 7:45 PM (GMT)
Hellas Verona’s campaign has been marked by resilience, and while injuries have tested their depth, the home crowd could give them the edge in this encounter. Bologna arrives in decent form but may struggle against Verona’s aggressive pressing game.
The model’s 23.5% win probability for Verona surpasses the implied 16.13%. In a game likely to be decided by small margins, Verona’s physicality and set-piece threat could be the key to an upset.
Final Thoughts
With implied probabilities offering insights into where the bookmakers might be undervaluing certain teams, this week's Serie A action presents multiple opportunities. Stay informed about lineup changes and injury updates leading up to kickoff for the best betting strategy.
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